美國減息｜鮑威爾轉鷹、力拒短綫減息預期　「一年後關稅不確定性、應該會低得多」

美國聯儲局主席鮑威爾表示，更高的關稅將對經濟產生影響，並可能在未來幾季推高通脹，近期通脹預期指標均上升，他回答提問時指出，現在無需急於調整利率，因為政府政策及影響尚不明朗。

他這種耐性，暗示可能要等非常長時間，「如果你快進到一年後，不確定性應該會低得多，」他說。「屆時政策的實際效果應該會非常清楚。」

特朗普：唔好玩政治

基於經濟的不明朗，市場對減息的呼聲上升，包括特朗普指出，現在是鮑威爾減息的最佳時機，「他總是慢半拍，但現在他可以改變自己的形象，快來，能源價格下降，借貸利率下降，通脹下降，甚至雞蛋價格也下降了 69%，而就業卻上升，這些都在兩個月發生了，這是美國的巨大勝利」。特朗普直斥，「減息，鮑威爾，不要玩弄政治」。

鮑威爾在發言稿指，評論政府政策不是我們的職責，相反，他會評估可能產生的影響，觀察經濟行為，並以最佳方式制定貨幣政策，以實現「穩定價格」及「最大就業」雙重使命目標。

鮑威爾承認，當前形勢正朝著這兩項使命可能發生衝突的方向發展，但他認為「目前尚未看到這種情況。」

利率期貨顯示，5月減息預期上升至33%，6月減息兩次預期升至30.6%，7月減息3次預期升至28.4%。

鮑威爾更謹慎 影響由「暫時」轉「持久」

不過，鮑威爾今次的語氣，比他在3月19日記者會上更加謹慎。當時他表示，關稅
帶來的通脹影響預計是暫時性的，今次卻指「關稅極影響也有可能更為持久。」

他強調，聯儲局應對重點，將放在遏制公眾對通脹失控的預期上。「我們的責任是確保長期通脹預期保持穩固，並確保一次性的物價上漲不會演變為持續性的通脹問題。我們目前處於有利位置，可以好整以暇，等待局勢更加明朗後再考慮是否調整政策立場。」他相信新政府政策帶來的高度不確定性，最後總會消退。

關稅遠超預期 憂通脹上升、增長放緩

他指出，現時評估提高關稅可能帶來的經濟影響將非常困難，例如對哪些產品徵收關稅、徵收何種程度的關稅、徵收多長時間，以及貿易夥伴將採取何種程度的報復措施。

他指，現在變得清晰的是，關稅上調幅度將遠遠超出預期，對經濟影響可能也一樣，包括通脹上升、增長放緩，這些影響的規模和持續時間仍不確定。

鮑威爾表示，將繼續密切關注後續數據、不斷變化的前景以及風險平衡，應該等待更清晰的情況發展，然後再考慮調整政策立場，現在談論貨幣政策的適當路徑還為時過早。

Economic Outlook

Chair Jerome H. Powell

Thank you for having me here today. Monetary policy is more effective when the public understands what we are doing and why. Through your work， journalists like you help promote that greater understanding. I am sure this room full of reporters does not lack for questions to ask. Before addressing a few of those， I will briefly summarize the outlook for the economy and monetary policy.

At the Fed， we are squarely focused on achieving the dual-mandate goals Congress has given us of maximum employment and stable prices. While uncertainty is high and downside risks have risen， the economy is still in a good place. The incoming data show solid growth， a labor market in balance， and inflation running much closer to， but still above， our 2 percent objective.

Recent Economic Data

After a couple of years of solid growth， many forecasters have anticipated somewhat slower growth this year. The initial reading for first-quarter GDP will be released later this month. The limited hard data are consistent with a slower but still solid growth outlook. At the same time， surveys of households and businesses report dimming expectations and higher uncertainty about the outlook. Survey respondents point to the effects of new federal policies， especially related to trade. We are closely watching this tension between the hard and soft data. As the new policies and their likely economic effects become clearer， we will have a better sense of their implications for the economy and for monetary policy.

Looking across many indicators， the labor market appears to be broadly in balance and is not a significant source of inflationary pressure. This morning's jobs report shows the unemployment rate at 4.2 percent in March， still in the low range where it has held since early last year. Over the first quarter， payrolls grew by an average of 150,000 jobs a month. The combination of low layoffs， moderating job growth， and slowing labor force growth has kept the unemployment rate broadly stable.

Turning to the other leg of our dual mandate， inflation has declined sharply from its pandemic highs of mid-2022. It has done so without the kind of painful rise in unemployment that has often accompanied periods of tight monetary policy that are needed to reduce inflation. More recently， progress toward our 2 percent inflation objective has slowed. Total PCE prices rose 2.5 percent over the 12 months ending in February. Core PCE prices， which exclude the volatile food and energy categories， rose 2.8 percent. Looking ahead， higher tariffs will be working their way through our economy and are likely to raise inflation in coming quarters. Reflecting this， both survey- and market-based measures of near-term inflation expectations have moved up. By most measures， longer-term inflation expectations—those beyond the next few years—remain well anchored and consistent with our 2 percent inflation goal. We remain committed to returning inflation sustainably to our 2 percent objective.

Monetary Policy

Turning to monetary policy， we face a highly uncertain outlook with elevated risks of both higher unemployment and higher inflation. The new Administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in four distinct areas： trade， immigration， fiscal policy， and regulation. Our monetary policy stance is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties we face as we gain a better understanding of the policy changes and their likely effects on the economy. It is not our role to comment on those policies. Rather， we make an assessment of their likely effects， observe the behavior of the economy， and set monetary policy in a way that best achieves our dual-mandate goals.

We have stressed that it will be very difficult to assess the likely economic effects of higher tariffs until there is greater certainty about the details， such as what will be tariffed， at what level and for what duration， and the extent of retaliation from our trading partners. While uncertainty remains elevated， it is now becoming clear that the tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected. The same is likely to be true of the economic effects， which will include higher inflation and slower growth. The size and duration of these effects remain uncertain. While tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation， it is also possible that the effects could be more persistent. Avoiding that outcome would depend on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored， on the size of the effects， and on how long it takes for them to pass through fully to prices. Our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to make certain that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem.

We will continue to carefully monitor the incoming data， the evolving outlook， and the balance of risks. We are well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance. It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy.

Conclusion

We understand the benefits of a solid economy where workers can find jobs and inflation is low and predictable. We also understand that elevated levels of unemployment or inflation can be damaging and painful for communities， families， and businesses. That is why we at the Fed will continue to do everything we can to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability goals.